Crash Productions Video



    I made this video in 2001 when learning how to use Adobe After Effects. I would have put it on YouTube, but I don't think it existed yet!?



    AITG Got Jacked

    After five years of slaving away for AITG I now find myself unself employed. AITG was recently bought by the largest award and recognition company in the world, Eighth Floor Promotions. They are a holding company that owns AwardCraft, Visions, Craftsman and now AITG. They are most likely going to scrap my award winning website and rebuild it with ASP and Flash (YUCK!!).

    Working for AITG was an amazing experience. I learned more there than I ever thought imaginable. I got the job just out of high school with the class yearbook as my portfolio. I never imagined I would be designing 300 page catalogs and building award winning websites.

    The most important skill gained from my time at AITG was learning webdev. I had always been intimidated by the web and for good reason, shit aint easy! AITGinc.com was the first website I ever built and winning the PPAI Web Award was a major boost of confidence and a moment I will never forget.

    So the life plan got a little sidetracked. I was going to work at AITG until I was done with school and then start a business of my own. I am 2 semesters shy of finishing school so it wasn't too far off (who was I to expect the plan to go perfect!?). I am going to take 4 classes this summer and try to finish school up next semester. I have enough cash to get by for some time and I just want to focus on getting to the next phase of my life.

    If I could do it over again I wouldn't change a thing. The only part I regret was the way it all came to an end.



    Yentaz.com

    Yentaz-LogoWe started a fun new website to play off the crazy celebrity madness going on lately. There are tons of celebrity events that take place but don't have pictures or videos to go along with them. So why not just re-enact the scenes with dolls?

    Now I know what your thinking, Greg, is that you? Ya I duno, it just sounds fun, and Dorfman landed a pretty good domain name. Seems like a fun idea that we can get the girls involved in. See what you think Yentaz.com



    UA Meets My Profile: Short Time

    I found another stock that meets my recent profile of a POS.
    1) IPO'd in 2007
    2) Exploded for its first few months on the market
    3) Has strong competition
    4) Tanking like a boulder in a river

    UA seems to have given its best shot in all possible markets. I only hope that it dosn't get cheap enough to get aquired by Nike or one of the other monsters that it is competing with. It's market cap (1.89 bil) just dropped below its enterprise value(1.96 bil) which is not a good sign. It has a 32% short interest which means some crazy announcement could cause an intense short squeeze.

    UA is in an obvious downward trend. It recently tanked to $25 when Wachovia downgraded the stock because they believe UA will miss its target first Q of '08 because of an increased marketing expense. If marketing expenses are the only thing keeping this stock alive, its bound for the dead pool.

    I went short half my position today and plan on selling the other half of my position around $45. If everything goes as planned I will buy back between $25 & $30.



    Huge Week In Tech

    This week has seen some huGe announcements from the tech industry. After getting pummeled in the recent "recession scare", some companies are looking like good takeover targets & some are just afraid. Here are the big tech stories this week in no particular order:

    1) Amazon purchased Audible for $300 Million. Audible is the leading audio book company. This could cause some serious conflict of interest considering they are the main provider of audio books to iTunes.

    2) Garmin is breaking into the cell phone market with the nuvifone. A GPS company could seriously stir things up in the cell phone industry. Is the first victim moto?

    3) Motorola decided to spin off its cellphone unit. I guess they don't feel like they can hand with the new breed of phone manufacturers (AAPL & GRMN)

    4) Tivo won a super important patent case against Echostar. Ever since generic DVR's came to market, there has been a misconception that Tivo's patents were not strong. Well as of yesterday, if a company wants their DVR to let you watch one show while recording the other, you have to license that tech from tivo. Now that Tivo's patents have proven themselves, it makes them a big takeover target.

    5) Google missed it's analyst estimates for the first time ever yesterday. Sure profits were up 17% and revenue growth of an amazingly googlishious 51%, but that wasn't enough. GOOG is down almost $200 a share in the last 2 months. But the biggest tech news the night of GOOG's earnings weren't from GOOG.

    6) Microsoft made a public offer to buy Yahoo! for $44.6 billion the night of GOOG's earnings report. Coincidence? I think not. MSFT is out to get GOOG and it looks like the timing is right.



    Short VMW earnings

    My short position in VMW went very well. I knew this company couldn't hold at the levels mentioned in the previous post. While the stock drifted against me soon after I sold short, their earnings announcement on Monday crushed it. They met analysts expectations, so what went wrong(right! for me)?

    This was a classic example of of the market posting a premium on a star IPO. Every investor is looking for the next big IPO. When they set their estimates, what they really are doing is picking a number that they want the company to BEAT. When young companies can't BEAT their estimates, then the market punishes them.

    VMW TradeI sold short at $77.55 on Thursday because VMW had tested it's support 3 times with no signs of a bounce. When I noticed earnings were being announced I was skeptical to hold such a large position because you never know what will happen after an announcement. I bought back half of my position 30 minutes before the close on Monday (earnings day) at $78.89.

    After earnings were announced VMW started dropping like a rock in after hours. I watched it bounce off of $62 and then recover to the $67 area once the conference call started. When it went back down to $62.50 I covered the rest of my position in after hours.

    Every time I have ever made a move in after hours I have regretted it (except for once with AAPL but that was a buy). It was no different here. I think I played this trade well but should have waited until market open Tuesday to cover. The stock opened @ $58.27 and went as low as $53.57 where it found support. If I would have stuck to my plan I would have covered in the low $50s. Either way I am glad I covered and happy with the trade.

    First Half of position:
    Bought @ 77.55 sold @ 78.89 = -1.72%

    Second Half of position:
    Bought @ 77.55 sold @ 62.50 = +19.4%

    Success...




    During a bear market, the only way to make money is to pick a dog, and sell it short. I have been mostly cash for some time now and I need to get it working for me.

    When I have no idea which direction the market is going (like the last few weeks) I trade based on what the market is doing that day. On 12/11/07 I sold CROX short at $44.60 and bought it back at $42.70.

    On 1/7/08 I sold CROX short first thing in the morning at $32 and have been holding ever since.

    The market has been taking an absolute BEATING for the last month or so. The dow is down almost 3000 points and fear of recession is looming. I need to start finding stocks that I want to be short through this. I am looking for high flying fads. Expecially ones where the chart points to a potential gap down.

    My first find so far is VMW. I loved the stock when it IPO'd. I think it it had too large a run and could break down if the market crumbles. There is some serious support at 71 which has been tested 3 times now. I think next time it tests the 71 level it will bust through. I went short this morning at $77.55 and will put a stop at about $80. I will look to buy back at its IPO price around $50 (if I can wait that long).







    I literally heard sirens outside 10 minutes after the market opened today.




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