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	My Week At The TechCrunch50 I spent the last week at the TechCrunch50 watching startups present and listening to the tech elite discuss various topics ranging from fundraising to tech's new clash with Hollywood. I learned a lot, took a ton of notes, and am officially mentally and physically exhausted. As for the majority of the companies presenting, I truthfully wasn't all that impressed. There were of course some great stand out startups, but of the 52 who presented, I can honestly say I was only impressed with a few. Maybe I expected too much, maybe my ass just hurt from sitting in those uncomfortable chairs all day, but there were a lot of companies presenting extremely unimaginative ideas. For example AdRocket was building an advertising platform that delivered targeted ads in company newsletters/emails. How a startup like that was chosen to present out of the 1000+ entries boggles my mind. I even want as far as to predict that this event officially popped the Web 2.0 bubble. My favorite of the presenting companies were: 1) Yammer- Twitter for the enterprise 2) DotSpots- Annotating the web 3) ExchangeP- Virtual stock exchange for private companies 4) Mytopia- Developer of RUGS, a framework for developing and compiling native applications that will run on EVERY mobile operating system. 5) Akoha- A real world game where missions can be tracked online 6) GoodGuide- The world's largest and most reliable source of information on the health, environmental, and social impacts of products and companies. In the end, six companies were brought on stage, five as finalists and one $50k winner. Surprisingly, Yammer took home the check. I love the idea of Yammer, I signed up for their service while I was listening to their pitch, but I'm not sure they should have been the winner. There is a lot to learn from the judges' decision though. The main thing I take away is that it's not about how cool or innovative your product is, it's about having something that is (super) simple, useful and profitable. The startup presentations were boring at times, but the panels and discussions between sessions completely made up for it. Below are a few of the interesting quotes and advice I jotted down while listening to the various investors and geeks talk shop. "Solve ONE particular pain point... then build the platform" - Effen Roelof (Sequoia) "Follow the money, not the users" - Mark Cuban "If I were raising money for a startup, I would use the angel investors, not VC's." - Raj Kapoor (Mayfield Fund) "We like to invest in companies that have an unfair advantage in customer acquisition." - Navin Chadda (Mayfield Fund) "I think the term viral marketing is an oxymoron" - Joss Whedon By far the highlight of the event for me was the Mark Cuban interview. I have been a big fan of his for a long time and even more so now. Below are some of the great notes and quotes I took while listening to him. - Broadcast was making 23 million the quarter when they sold for 5.7 billion - We had over 1 million uniques a day when we sold broadcast.com - Do things that people say wont work, do what people say can't be done - I look at industries that I know are messed up - Always put yourself in a position where you can control your own destiny - Sales cures all - If you cant make money/sell your product, move on - I will not invest in a company if you come to me with an exit strategy - When we sold broadcast.com, we had 300 employees and 130 were in sales - Everybody's got the will to win, the feeling that this is it, but not many people have the will to prepare - Bobby Knight - You have too know your market better than anybody All in all it was a great event and I want to thank TechCrunch for accepting my student application (at least now I can say college was good for something!). I look forward to attending and possibly presenting next year ;) . Check out all of my twits from the event here. 10 Sep 2008 Disqus Comments »

	FMCN May Have Found It's Bottom I have been a fan of FMCN for some time. About a year back I posted that this was a great way to get some China exposure and play the Olympics at the same time. Problem was, I think I was about a year late. The market had already been pricing that in for some time, and the stock has been performing pretty poorly ever since. An earthquake in China shook the stock and then the weak market dragged it down even farther. The short interest in FMCN has gone up dramatically during this time as trend followers hopped on board and the market took a turn for the worse. Their are currently 23.5 million shares short and an average volume of 4 million. At this rate it would take shorts a full 6 days to cover and it only takes a few positive press releases to make that happen. Today Focus Media announced a $100 million buy back. They are going to use 1/4 of their $400 million in cash to fund it. Tan Zhi, chief executive officer of Focus Media, commented, ''Our Board's approval of the share repurchase program reflects our commitment to increase shareholder value and our confidence that the current ADS price level does not reflect our potential value.'' On that note it seems that FMCN may have found it's bottom. The potential for a short squeeze, the $100 million buyback & the olympics may be the trifecta this stock needs to turn this trend around. It is nice to see a company looking out for it's shareholders when times get tough. The future is very bright for this company, and this looks like a good time to hop on board. Disclosure: I am a current shareholder of FMCN. 16 Jul 2008 Disqus Comments »

	The Run On The Banks Begins As I drove down Ventura blvd today to my dentist appointment I passed a long line that went down the street and around the corner. I couldnt quite get a glimpse of what people were waiting for but it must have been important. I figured there must be an AT&T store there that just got a new shipment of iPhone 3Gs. While I was in the waiting room I read the news about the run on the banks and how the federal government had to move in to save IndyMac. On my way back I drove by again and the line got longer. There were police and news vans everywhere. I wish I had taken a picture, but no picking up your phone while driving in LA! It reminded me of history class back in 8th grade. Learning about the great depression and the run on the banks in 1933. This is only the begenning folks. Things can go from bad to worse real quick come soon. Lets hope for the best. 14 Jul 2008 Disqus Comments »

	Breaking Up With JMBA I have been a JMBA shareholder since day one(ish). Back in March of ’06 Service Acquisition Corp.(SVI), a SPAC company announced that it was going to use the money raised from it’s IPO to buy Jamba Juice. As a Southern California native I have witnessed Jamba Juice go from a small smoothie shop to a full-blown national franchise. The story was compelling, and I felt like I had gotten in on what could potentially be an exciting opportunity. Boy was I wrong. One of the worst parts about the story is that I had been averaging down as the stock price went down. Eventually my average price per share came in at around $6.50. The problem all along is that I have just been married to this stock and the potential for this company. I was infatuated with the idea of owning a company from the beginning and watching it grow up into a big, well known, national public company. Obviously I liked that idea more than I liked to make money, cause the company has done nothing but taken advantage of our relationship. The management at JMBA has never once acknowledged the fact that the company has lost over 80% of its value over the last 2 years. They haven’t done as much as to say, “We understand that our shareholders are hurting, and we have a plan to fix it.” So sufficed to say this has been a one sided relationship, they don’t give a shit about their shareholders. JMBA has never been a large part of my portfolio. I always considered it to be a little gem that I could some day be proud to of been a part of from the beginning. But that small position has gotten a whole lot smaller to the point where it is embarrassing to even see it in my portfolio. Everything I have ever said about JMBA still holds true. I still believe there to be a lot of potential in their ready-to-drink line and maybe some day they will grow into a profitable company. But we will never see this as long as the people in charge act the way they do. It is sad to see this position go, but in order to be serious about my new trading strategy I can’t have any skeletons in my portfolio. Related Posts: Jamba Juice Finally Extends It's Brand, Officially (27 May, 2008) JMBA- Cutting Back (21 August, 2007) JMBA- All Time Lows, & Taking Me With It (15 August, 2007) JMBA- Time To Get Back On Board (26 July, 2007) Jamba Juice Explodes On Record Earnings, And Then Tanks (12 June, 2007) 08 Jul 2008 Disqus Comments »

	My First Few Trades With My New Strategy Since starting with my new trading strategy things have been going according to plan. I have had some very successful +6% trades and limited the rest to less than -2%. One thing I hadn’t anticipated (but probably should have because it makes sense) was how quickly stocks reach their 6% goal. Both successful trades each took 5 and 6 days to reach their price targets. Knowing your price targets ahead of time makes all the difference in the world. If you see a stock approaching your target, put in a sell order and see if it triggers. One small pop can trigger your order even if the stock opens and closes nowhere near your target. My three most recent trades: Short CSTR @ 34.65 on 6/24/08 Bought CSTR @ 32.05 on 7/1/08 TOTAL = 8.11% gain Short MSFT @ 27.90 on 6/24/08 Bought MSFT @ 26.25 on 7/2/08 TOTAL = 6.29% gain Bought T @ 33.35 on 7/1/08 Sold T @ 32.75 on 7/7/08 TOTAL = 1.8% loss The AT&T(T) trade didn't fly because the market was getting crushed at the time. It is always best to be long or short according to overall market conditions. After 5 days and no sign of T trading in the direction I had planned, it was time to dump it and move on. If a stocks doesn't move as anticipated, get rid of it and put the money to work elsewhere. At this rate I should be at my first 6% goal in no time. Then only 11 more times to double my money. The extremely choppy market conditions are making for great trading. Just remember to set stops, and everything will go according to plan. 08 Jul 2008 Disqus Comments »

	The 6 Percent Solution Below is the current strategy I use when investing my money in the stock market. I may make slight changes and adjustments to this strategy as time goes by, but the general concept will always stay the same. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you make 6% 12 times you double your money. If you double your money 8 times it becomes $1.2 million. [Starting with only $5k] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Portfolio Rules Always know where my next 6% goal is. Sell all positions every time goal is reached. No more than 4 stocks at a time. Stock Rules Plan the trade, trade the plan (know exactly where I am going to buy and where I am going to sell before pulling the trigger) Never let a gain turn into a loss. Use stops. Never lose more than 2%. Always sell once up 5-10%. Stock Picking Rules Avoid stocks with known upcoming catalysts. Pick stocks based on trends and technicals. Look for stocks with potential for 5-10% gains. Never pick stocks under $20. Never pick stocks with average volume under 500,000. Other Rules Never hold a stock through earnings. This strategy forces me to acknowledge some very important concepts that I believe make me a better investor. You will get sidetracked without a solid plan. Investing is all about discipline. Make a plan and stick to it. If you want to set your goals high, you need to take lots of baby steps to reach them. 30 Jun 2008 Disqus Comments »

	My Pledge To Disciplined Investing Back when I first began investing I built a strategy that I believed (and still do) could make me the most money, and best fit my investing style. It was a mash-up of the many investing strategies and concepts I had read in books and researched before putting my hard earned money to work in the markets. It was developed with no personal investing experience, but was based on the ideas and concepts of professional, successful, experienced investors. I had $5,000 at the time and my goal was to turn it into $1,000,000. The strategy was built on a set of rules that would help me minimize risk and stay focused on the baby steps towards my end goal. I called the strategy "The 6% Solution". Fast-forward to today, and not only have I not reached that goal, but I was never able to successfully implement the strategy. The problem lies with what I consider to be the most important and difficult part of investing, discipline. The strategy would have worked as long as I stuck to the plan and focused on my goal. It turns out that was extremely difficult and boring. I found myself chasing the big winners, taking bigger risks and essentially attempting to prove my rules wrong. I spent the last few years avoiding discipline only to learn that you simply cannot be a successful investor without it. So here is my pledge to being a disciplined investor: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I will review my investing strategy before every trading day. I will never break the rules of my strategy under any circumstance. I will not let the excitement of the market interfere with my strategy. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Remember, it is not so much the strategy. In fact, you can change and develop the strategy if need be, It is sticking to the strategy that counts. For an example of a strategy, check out the one that I use. The 6% Solution. 29 Jun 2008 Disqus Comments »

	The Big Bid For Bud Everyone knows, you don't mess with a mans beer, but maybe Belgium never got the memo. InBev, maker of Beck's and Stella Artois brands has just made a $46 Billion bid for Anheuser-Busch. Not only is this a good offer, it is a great offer valuing the stock at $65 a share. Budweiser's struggling stock has been hanging out around the $40-50 level for the last 5 years. From a shareholder standpoint, the company should take the deal. Unfortunately this story gets a lot uglier. For those who don't know, Anheuser-Busch is a company that is very near and dear to my heart. What can I say... I love drinking a cold Bud. JK. Actually, my dad has worked for Anheuser-Busch since before I was born and beer money has basically funded my entire life. Growing up around "The Bud Guys", I can truly say that this is the most genuine company/group of people who not only represent the American dream, but are respected as a great American company. The thought of losing such a great American icon to the dark side of free/open capital markets puts pit in my stomach. What we are seeing here represents a scary trend in the American financial system. Our weak dollar and shot economy make American companies a target for takeover by thriving emerging countries. While the bulls-eye has been on America's forehead for many years, it was not until now that our oversees competitors have the ability to pull the trigger. So who decides whether the deal goes through? The Busch family owns 4%, Buffett owns 5%, the Budweiser distributors own a good chunk of the company, but the boys on Wall Street still own controlling interest in the company. Will it matter to them that losing this company will dent the ego of our already suffering country? The legal eagles on capital hill are already buzzing trying to figure out ways to make the deal "illegal". On the other hand, Budweiser is batting around it's own ideas on how to avoid the merger. Mexico's Grupo Modelo SAB and Anheuser-Busch have been working together for many years and if they were to merge, the combined company would be too large for InBev to swallow. Unfortunately one rumor floating around the Bud camp is that InBev has the financial backing to raise it's bid as high as $70 Billion which would value BUD at roughly $98 a share! It would be a hard sale convincing the market to deny an offer which is 2X the what the stock price was only a few short months ago. This is going to be a long battle and I am only hoping we can hang on to this great American icon. The least we can do at this point is sign this petition to save Budweiser and keep Anheuser-Busch an American owned company. I will make sure to keep everyone updated on any news/rumors that come floating my way. 13 Jun 2008 Disqus Comments »

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